Heat pump installations in the UK grew 27% in 2025, and the government is targeting 450,000 a year by 2030. Here's what it takes to get certified, what you can earn, and whether now is the right time to make the move.
Jamie Duncan
The short answer is yes. The UK heat pump market is growing fast, there's a massive shortage of qualified installers, and the economics are strong. But it's worth understanding what's involved before you make the move.
Heat pump sales in the UK hit 125,037 units in 2025, up 27% on 2024's record of 98,345. Sales have nearly quadrupled since 2019. MCS-certified installations reached 57,918 in 2024 alone, a 75% increase on the year before. For a deeper look at what it will take to reach the government's installation targets, we've written about that separately.
Despite this growth, the UK still sells over 12 gas boilers for every heat pump. That gap represents a massive opportunity.
The government's Warm Homes Plan, published in January 2026, committed £15 billion to home energy upgrades, described as the biggest in British history. The plan targets 450,000 heat pump installations per year by 2030, backed by:
On top of that, the Clean Heat Market Mechanism (CHMM), launched in April 2025, now requires boiler manufacturers to sell heat pumps as a percentage of their boiler sales: 6% in year one, rising to 8% from April 2026. Manufacturers face a £500 fine for every unit they fall short.
The direction is clear. Heat pumps are where the industry is going.
Heat pump work pays well, and it's getting better as demand outstrips supply.
Self-employed / sole trader:
Employed (dual-skilled gas and heat pump):
For context, heat pump-certified installers earn £7,000–£10,000 more per year than standard plumbers. Salaries across the sector are expected to rise around 4% in 2026.
The economics of each job are also compelling. A typical gas boiler install is charged at £2,500–£4,000. A heat pump installation runs £8,000–£15,000 for air source and up to £45,000 for ground source. The plant costs are higher but so are the margins. Once you're established, generating a steady flow of leads becomes the main growth lever.
If you're already a qualified plumber or heating engineer, the path is straightforward. If you're coming from a different trade, you might also want to read our guide on becoming a solar panel installer, since many installers end up working across both technologies.
You need at least one of:
Once you meet the prerequisites, a heat pump training course typically takes 3–5 days and costs £500–£660 + VAT.
Popular providers include:
The government's Heat Training Grant covers up to £500 towards training costs and is available until at least March 2026.
If you're not already in the trade, the apprenticeship route takes around 36 months via the Level 3 Low-Carbon Heating Technician standard, with 95% of costs government-funded.
You don't technically need MCS certification to install heat pumps. But in practice, it's essential.
MCS certification is required for your customers to access the £7,500 BUS grant, and with over 97% of government-supported installations being air source heat pumps, the grant is a major driver of sales. MCS is also the sole certification scheme recognised under the CHMM.
Without MCS, you're competing without the grant incentive. Most customers won't consider it.
The process takes 6–12 weeks from application to certification:
Once certified, keeping on top of MCS documentation and compliance for every job is where most of the ongoing admin sits.
Here's where the opportunity really stands out. There are fewer than 3,000 MCS-certified heat pump businesses in the UK and an estimated 2,000–4,500 full-time installers. The industry needs 33,700–41,000 full-time installers just to meet short-term targets, rising to 70,000–122,000 by 2035.
That's a gap of 10–20x the current workforce.
Over 7,800 people completed heat pump training in 2023, but 39% of those who complete training don't go on to install heat pumps. Two-thirds of the current installer base are aged over 45. The supply side has a long way to go.
For anyone entering the market now, this shortage translates directly into strong demand, pricing power, and job security. The emerging Guild of Master Heat Engineers is also working to raise professional standards and recognition for quality installers.
Understanding the customer side helps you position your business.
Air source heat pumps (ASHP):
Ground source heat pumps (GSHP):
With 0% VAT on heat pump supply and installation (until March 2027), the economics for homeowners are the best they've ever been. Over 102,000 BUS applications have been made since the scheme launched, with demand accelerating.
The key homeowner motivations: 86% cite reducing carbon emissions, 79% want to reduce fossil fuel dependence, and 65% say the BUS grant was a key factor in their decision.
Reasons to go for it:
Things to consider:
If you're a plumber, gas engineer, or heating specialist, adding heat pump installation to your skill set is one of the strongest moves you can make right now. The training is short, the grants are generous, and the market needs you.
Once you're up and running, the challenge shifts from getting qualified to managing your pipeline efficiently. Heat pump jobs involve more complexity than a boiler swap: site surveys, design calculations, MCS documentation, BUS grant applications, DNO notifications, and customer communication.
That's where purpose-built software makes the difference. Payaca is designed specifically for clean tech installers, with built-in compliance workflows, automated job management, and tools that let you focus on installing rather than admin.
See how Payaca helps clean tech installers save time and grow their business.
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